There is a long term market for gas fired electricity generation...

There is a long term market for gas fired electricity generation in Australia, particularly the east coast and imo there is an emerging opportunity for ucg.

The age and capacity of east coast coal fired power stations is something like:

Qld

Callide (1965 refurbished 1998) 1720MW
Collinsville(1976) 190
Gladstone (1976) 1680
Kogan Creek (2007) 750
Millmerran (2002) 850
Stanwell (1996) 1400
Swanbank B (1973) 480
Tarong North (1999) 485
Tarong (1984) 1470
---------------------------------------------
Average Age (1988) Sub-Total 9,025MW


NSW

Bayswater (1986) 2640MW
Eraring (1982) 2640
Liddell (1971) 2000
Munmorah (1967) 600
Vales Point (1963) 1320
Redbank (1994?) 150
Wallerawang (1959) 1000
Mt Piper (1992) 1400
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Average Age (1977) Sub-Total 11,750MW

Assuming 50% turbine efficiency say 650-740PJ/yr (any gas) OR say 59-67mill tonnes coal/yr (for syngas) OR say 1.77-2.02bill tonnes coal/30yrs (for syngas)


VIC

Anglesea (1969) 160MW
Energy Brix (1956) 170
Hazelwood (1964) 1600
Loy Yang A & B (1980's) 3250
Yallourn (1960's to 1970's) 1450
-------------------------------------------------
Average Age (1968) Sub-Total 6,630MW

Assuming 50% turbine efficiency say 365-418PJ/yr (any gas) OR say 33-38mill tonnes coal/yr (for syngas) OR say o-0.99-1.13bill tonnes coal/30yrs (for syngas)
--------------------------------------------------
EAST COAST TOTAL 27,405MW


Pick the states in trouble!

Victoria's problems are compounded because they use brown coal and include several of the world's least carbon efficient power stations.

Presumably, electricity is exported interstate to some degree under load sharing arrangements.

There is an obvious looming imperative to replace aging coal fired power stations mainly in NSW and Vic with modern combined cycle gas fired power stations ... fuelled by natural gas, coal seam gas and syngas produced by underground and possibly surface coal gasification.

There is some potential for more gas fired generating capacity in Qld due to demand growth in Qld and because of years of indecision and inaction in NSW and Vic it would appear.

The required replacement capacity essentially has to be gas as climate change and political concerns would make it difficult to get regulatory and funding approval for anything but the cleanest of modern coal fired power stations like Kogan Creek in Qld ... and the capital costs of gas fired combined cycle is significantly cheaper than Kogan Creek style clean coal combustion.

No other conventional energy source or renewable energy source has anything like the scalability of gas ... and there are many decades (conventional gas and coal seam gas) and quite likely centuries (syngas from underground coal gasification) of gas reserves ... ample time to get serious about renewable energy one would hope.

In the coal seam gas sector, Queensland Gas (QGC) got taken over by British Gas when 1P/2P reserves were marching towards 2000PJ. Santos possibly has something like 5000+PJ of coal seam gas reserves and recently took a 20% stake in Eastern Star Gas (ESG) as their 1-3P reserves are heading over 1000PJ. Metgasco (MEL) is flying beneath the radar with 1-3P reserves likely to be similar to ESG. Then there is Arrow Energy (AOE) and a few others.

Looking at the above reserves and then at the hypothetical case that gas replaced all current coal fired generating capacity in NSW and Victoria progressively over the next 20 yrs, gas supply for electricity generation would need to ramp up 1015-1158PJ/yr based on figures in the above table. Given that a majority of emerging coal seam gas reserves are supposedly heading to Gladstone for LNG conversion and then the export market, where is that gas going to come from?.

Based on the above, there has to be a powerful case for underground coal gasification imo. The coal reserves required for a complete (but unlikely) syngas replacement of current coal fired generating capacity in NSW and Victoria is a very manageable 3 bill tonnes of insitu coal over 30 yrs based on the figures in the above table.

CXY alone have a stated potential target of 2.5 bill tonnes based on a recent announcement ... although they are only likely to ever commercialise a proportion of that.

If nothing else, this argument pretty much refutes the efforts of some in the ucg industry, and the growing number of analysts covering the industry, that ucg is all about a land grab to obtain massive coal resources. Ucg has such a high energy recovery efficiency from coal that effectively a "little bit of coal goes a long way". There is no point proving up mind boogling, impossible to utilize, coal reserves. What matters the most is getting to market with a seriously commercial application for ucg ... the rest will fall into place imo.

Gas is unlikely to completely replace coal for electricity generation in east coast Australia over the next 20 yrs, but the replacement will be significant. Gas investments (conventional, &/or coal seam &/or syngas) are a must in any long term investment portfolio imo.

Cheers
Dex