Schlumberger, a very serious consultant to all of the biggest and best energy players, told us last year our 2C is 800-1000pJ. Their timeline is out of course, but we must allow a margin of error as OGP has done in his modelling. The spot price for natural gas is $3.28/GJ. Let’s discount that to $2.00/GJ, closer go what Origin sold Ironbark for in 2019, the last significant gas transaction I can find. Let’s also discount Glenaras 2C to 500PJ, the original certified estimate. Our current Market Cap is almost exactly $200M. Current SP: $0.68
This is assuming commercial flow rates which is the key risk.
500,000,000GJ x $2.00p/GJ = $1B
$1B / $200M = 5x
5 x $0.68 = $3.40 (Low end)
———
1,000,000,000GJ x $3.28/GJ = $3.28B
$3.28B / $200M = 16.4x
16.4 x $0.55 = $11.15 (High end)
Add a premium for the asset and throw in Kumbarilla and Springsure.. there’s your $10 and change.
GLL Price at posting:
68.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
