Craig,
To me it is very simple -
Bird flu might or might not happen - Govts cannot afford to gamble and have made that clear.
Next decision which drug
A mercedes or a jaguar? Does not matter both are very good cars. If you need transport pick either.
Likewise if you need protection and not enough of Tamiflu can be produced - choice stay at risk or buy Relenza - easy decision.
By the way could reverse the Tamiflu / Relenza sequence but still the same logic.
People arguing it will or it will not, which is the better drug just do not get it and should not be investing.
Again it is not a matter of profiting by wishing the worst on the world - BTA will make profits regardless of whether Bird flu epidemic happens - how nice it would be to know a company you had invested in saved millions of people.
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