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mainholm

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12/02/15

16:56

Post #: 14744807
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Originally posted by mainholm ↑

TGR has endured a shorting attack that increased significantly from 12/1/15. It eased off on 19/1/15, although the number of new shorts opened daily is still increasing.

Back around the 6/1/15 TGR only had 50k + shorts open and that figure was consistently around that level for some past time. New shorts opened daily starting increasing from 6/1/15 and took off from the 12/1/15 to be presently near the 500k mark for open shorts.

What does this mean? The possibilities are:

1. Somebody thinks TGR is overpriced, or
2. Somebody thinks the market is going to downturn, or
3. Somebody is taking shorts as a hedge because they are playing the derivatives market betting on the TGR sp increasing in the future.

I doubt it is option 2 because there are many more ASX listed companies that will suffer a much bigger drop than TGR if the market suffers a significant downturn. So, IMHO it is either option 1 or 3.

Time will tell. The half yearly report and interim div announcement will likely tell us whether the shorter/s are playing option 1 or 3.

This opinion of mine discounts the possibility that insider trading is going on. One never knows about that until too late, if ever.

Cheers

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Well the closing action and after market auction was unique to say the least.

Regarding my earlier post, it looks to me like it was option 1. The shorter thought TGR was overpriced and has had the rude awakening that he/she/it was wrong. Now, I'm only making an educated guess here, but this action that drove the TGR price back down to $3.90 looked to be the Shorter.

To my eyes it looks like the Shorter closed out his shorts by taking out more shorts and selling to himself. If so, the tactic is based on the assumption that the news today will see price increase tomorrow and the Shorter will sell into it in order to salvage something from the wreckage.

Maybe I'm wrong. What else could it be? The only other thing it might have been was a large dark pool transaction that needed to be brought onto the lite pool of the ASX in incremental bits and pieces.

It is interesting.

Cheers

TGR Price at posting: $3.90 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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it is interesting., page-9

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