CUV clinuvel pharmaceuticals limited

"It is no longer if, but when and how?"

  1. 1,156 Posts.
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    Good release yesterday on the blockbuster Vitiligo treatment that Clinuvel has developed with an already FDA approved drug. As pointed out already the statement is rather bullish for Clinuvel: "So it is no longer if, but when and how?". For the drugs place in dermatology offices? This is also what I think many shareholders have long believed anyway. PW has pointed out quite a few times in the past that the FDA is primarily concerned with safety over efficacy. Clinuvel's drug is already FDA, EMA approved with years of solid data backing safety and the photos we have seen from patients who have received Scenesse for Vitiligo show dramatic proof of efficacy. Yesterday's ASX release made mention of this safety via their unique method of STEM CELL stimulation to rapidly repigment skin in contrast to other methods which are slower and silence the immune system to achieve any pigmentation. Then there was further positive news about the 'spontaneous repigmentation' some patients achieved after therapy which also sounds very positive.

    Interesting they show the 2027 Vitiligo market estimate of $4.5 BILLION USD. Is that a clue? Further info of expecting to see 9% penetration in target market for total 5931 patients in Yr1-2. That exciting figure again of $490 - $570 Million USD. 47448 implants would seem that pricing is rather modest. Did they say no longer if, but when and how??? Everything set up, supply chain and treatment centres and billing codes ready to go. Let's convert just $460 Million USD to AUD, add in some money from EPP/interest existing streams and looks to me they could hit around $850 Million Revenues if those forecasts prove correct? Not one cent from a potential viral photo cosmetic either. Double data now from CUV105, good results from that and FDA submission on that alone may well be enough? Does anyone think poor old cash burning Disc could generate anything like that in the next 2-3 years or 5 years or even 10 years for that matter? Or make profits anything like Clinuvel? Yet they are valued over $2.5 Billion AUD, CUV equivalent would be $50 per share. I can see why Jefferies are coming up with PT of $39.20 for CUV. It's still less than being valued like the inferior business of Disc, but a solid amount higher than here. Even Bell Potter is more than 100% higher than here with their PT.

    Which leads to the ASIC data on shorting. The latest single day data is available shows 10 thousand fake Sell shares , the day before that is another 10 thousand fake shares, the day before that is 15 thousand fake Sell shares. Massive daily manipulation for years. Total open shorts just below 6% or 3 Million fake Sells in highly profitable, blockbuster developing, Clinuvel who only have 50 Million shares on issue - 48.5 Million if they do the buyback as they stated. Shorters controlling sentiment and shareprice, maybe for a takeover, but strangely allowed to continue on their merry way with their destructive behaviours even though Clinuvel did execute their buyback for a very short period at the much higher price of ~$15. Clinuvel would still have massive cash reserves of around $200 Million if they executed their 1.5Million share buyback right now.

    All IMO DYOR
    Last edited by Silverchair: 05/06/25
 
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$12.51
Change
0.400(3.30%)
Mkt cap ! $627.0M
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