The Hot Copper boards are in a Woodside frenzy. I think it is worth taking a deep breath and retreating back to value and future developments.
And those look excitng:
Let us start with SNE. Even should we take a conservative view, and write that down as $5 a barrel in NPV and say only 500m barrels get extracted, 13.7% is worth A$463m, or 10c per share.
FAN is an option on future oil price, so let us price 1b barrels at 20c per barrel, that is another 1c
then there is Differe. 3D is done, it makes a nice look alike on the new maps. Let us assume we sell down for the first two drills and retain 35%. As a shallower resevoir let us value 100m barrels at $10/barrel, and risk it 50%, that is another A$238m.
So we are conservatively worth $17c, and that rises as we move through development.
Who cares about what happens to Woodside? That is just the side show. Differe is coming, OPEC is cutting production, drilling is happening - and FAR is cheap
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