Unfortunately, the vast majority of current U.S. incentives for battery production, such as the [US] Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Section 45X tax credits, do not target next-generation batteries over existing technologies.
As a result, these incentives are being used almost exclusively to support manufacturing facilities to produce lithium-ion batteries. In addition, a Carnegie analysis of the $24 billion in U.S. federal grants and loan guarantees through the Department of Energy over the last two years reveals that more than 90 percent of the funding has supported lithium-ion batteries, the current generation of technology. Some of the remaining funding has supported low-cost and low-density architectures that can be used to back up the power grid. And less than 1 percent of federal funding has supported next-generation solid-state batteries.
Policymakers should avoid fighting yesterday’s war. As frustrating as it is that China has come to dominate the production of today’s lithium-ion battery technology through a mix of genuine innovation and manufacturing prowess as well as state-sponsored intellectual property theft and unfair trade and subsidy practices, it would be a mistake to try to beat China at its own game. Lavishing subsidies at a grand scale on domestic manufacturers to produce the same batteries that could otherwise be imported much more cheaply from China amounts to closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.
The coming years are critical in the race to commercialize high-performance, next-generation batteries. By 2035, Bloomberg forecasts that 20–30 percent of the global battery market could be served by disruptive next-generation batteries with lithium-metal anodes (see figure 3). But the proof points for commercial success—the first vehicles, consumer electronics, and military-grade equipment to use next-generation batteries—could emerge in the next twenty-four to thirty-six months.
BTW I have never said "SELL" about ADO nor that it cannot be part of a game changing technology. People act like I have, but that's their problem. I retain the right to remain sceptical as this is a high risk play and always has been. My really strong objections about ADO have been to do with governance, and commercial acumen.
ADO Price at posting:
1.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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