I've been wracking my brain and rereading the RNS's over and...

I've been wracking my brain and rereading the RNS's over and over again to see where I went wrong and why I didn't derisk at 50p or even at 34p after the SP went down to 25p because of the capital raising and climbed again to 34p.
I remember I was considering selling all my shares because of the euro woes and the price had climbed back upto 34p from 25p after the placing.

The following are the reasons why I didn't sell:-

For a start I was under the impression that they had enough information about the area they were drilling and that this was probably the best position to start their drilling campaign.

We were first informed
1) of the 40m gross pay and 12m - 20m net pay.
2) we were given the porosity figures
3) we were told that they have encountered hydrocarbons at the early stage of the drill which is a bonus and expectations are of a larger find further down.
4) we were told of a working hydrocarbon system.
5) we were told by the brokers that the whole area is now derisked and they have consequently reduced their risk factors to calculate the SP.
6) all the boxes were ticked based on RNS's not just rumours.

Then the SP started drifting down from 50p which seemed OK because the SP had climbed from 10p to 50p and it seemed like some people were taking profits.

Then were told of the placing at 32p by then our SP was roughly 40p and I remembered the previous placing in the 20's were the SP didn't retrace to that price and just kept on climbing. So I didn't take any chances and I held on.

Then we were told that the S1 had reached the basement and only encountered a further 3m of net pay which is not worth testing. Because of this the vaguely worded RNS the SP went down to 15p to 20p
Should I have sold here???

This is were things start to get foggy and don't add up.

1) they don't test the 12m to 20m net pay because they haven't got the equipment

2) we are told that they have been drilling the edge of the basin

3) larger finds should be encountered nearer the centre of the basin

4) PL and GB buy shares in their respective companies ( this did send alarm bells ringing in my mind because I think PL is a crafty c**t.) to suggest that those people selling have come to the wrong assumptions.
5) the next drill at SN will go ahead which is only 3.5km away so near to S1? Are they that happy about the log results that they don't even want to wait for the testing equipment and start drilling just down the road?
Add to that they are only going to drill to revised depth of 2400m and not any further down.
My assumption here was that this was to save money so they can do a third drill and further prove up the the whole area and sell it off.

6)GB announces in an RNS that RMP does not have an obligation but it has a choice whether it wants to participate in the 2nd drill and having looked at the log results etc etc. He is pleased to announce that RMP will have no hesitation in participating in the 2nd drill.
So everything seems to be in order.

These things are not adding up.
You drill for 3months and not know that you haven't got the required testing equipment?
You don't send for the testing equipment and do the testing first at a minimal cost but you go and drill nearby at a huge cost not knowing whether you have water or oil 3.5km away.
You drill to the revised depth and change your mind again and drill to the original TD and beyond on the nearby SN.
HRN do a further placing between the first and second drill with warrants attached most of the AOI allocation was taken up but not all of it there by reducing their share of HRN from 51% to c47%. Nevertheless they did take up a substantial amount.
Neither the warrants from the first tranche nor the second have qualified to be exercised.
That's odd because if they have been playing with the information then they could have got at least the first tranche exercised.
Now they have no money left.
Why mention oil or water before doing the testing on the SN gross find.
Why re-revise and drill at a huge cost to TD and beyond yet not go to test S1 at a minimal cost.
I just cannot believe the series of events that have brought RRS and RMP to it's hand and knees.
I am prepared to believe that PL and GB are amateurs at this oil and gas business but KH has got years and years of experience plus all the Knowhow of AOI at his presence. Why does he seem like a headless chicken in all this?

No it just doesn't add up.