"I know at a PE of 18 with quality, predictable earnings, I'll get 50% of my investment back in 9 years and be free carried in 18 years"
And you think that's what a GOOD investment looks like? How much inflation do you expect over those 18 years? How many black swans?
There's no way I would touch anything that takes that long to get a decent return. But then, somebody needs to buy the top I guess....
