it wil never be "game over in stock markets", page-25

"I think you mean dividend growth."

Nope. I mean sales growth - because with more sales, profits will also grow. It's simple arithmetic. For example, if Coke earns 1.3 cents per servings of drinks it sells, and it sells 1.8 billion servings a day, it will earn $9 billion per year. If it sells 2 billion servings a day, it'll earn $10 billion a year.

"
Really? You're seriously trying to use these as examples? Well ok, lets delude ourselves and pretend we bought these. How much has MSFT gone up over the last 14 years? ZIP.
Coke over 15yrs? ZIP.
"

I use those examples because they're typical of the large, US blue chips which make up the S&P 500 stock market index.

Yes, Coke and Microsoft hasn't risen much in terms of share price growth in the last 15 years. That's because during the stock bubble around that time, stocks like that were trading at PE's of 40+. I never said buying these stocks at ANY price would make you money. Indeed, buying stocks at excessive prices and valuations - which at 40 times earnings is arguably quite high - puts you at high risk of losing money. That's common sense. If the valuations back then were replicated now, the markets would be at least 200% of what they are today.

"In the last 18 years, we have had:
"

And during that same period, corporate earnings for the S&P stocks have risen by several multiples. The average S&P company would be making 3 times the profits now compared to back then. As I've said before, these 'black swans' have little bearing on sales and profits at the real world level.

I would love to know where I've got things wrong. I'm heavily invested in the S&P and the market in general - so if I've got it wrong I'd love to have an opportunity to get out before serious capital loss. But I just can't see where the logic fails: you can buy a stock at 18 times earnings, those earnings will most probably rise, and even if it doesn't in 9 years you'll have 50% of your investment back. I find it very hard to see how, at the end of 18 years, you will actually lose money this way, or be worse off than if you left your money as cash.

I think a lot of the fear and negative sentiments towards stocks come from a lack of how stocks work on a fundamental level.