Disruption is getting quicker and quicker - the s-curves are getting steeper and steeper.
Forecast cost trajectories are playing out. Look out below!
Transport as a service may unfold very rapidly, simply due to economics. We may be seeing 10c per mile (= about $0.10 aud per km) for electric autonomous taxis. $1 per 10km trip! This may be in the form of a monthly subscription, perhaps $100 per month. $1200 per year. Car ownership would drop dramatically and rapidly purely from the cost savings.
Global car fleets may drop significantly due to less cars driving more. Currently cars spend +90% of their time parked up.
If fleets of autonomous taxis are commonplace, parking requirements would drop significantly and would free up massive amounts of land space.
Even if the total global fleet of cars drops significantly, say to about a quarter, there’ll still be over 20 million cars sold each year. No, actually more because their life span (total years driven) will be less than current averages.
This may happen far quicker than people expect , could be only 5 years away due to economics.
In this case, there’ll be a very rapid shift to say +30 million EVs sold per year, which will require somewhere near 3Mtpa LCE. That could happen “soon” but may be towards the upper limit of sales due to a smaller overall fleet.
No problem! That’s a massive increase from today’s production and may happen sooner than the “other” forecasts for EV growth.
Seba has been on the money so far, despite the “unbelievable” predictions he has made.
It’s been a rough 2 years but I see a change coming, and it won’t be gradual.
Good luck long term holders, our time is coming.
GXY Price at posting:
91.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
