westcott,Those figures were for current IO prices back in 2012,...

westcott,

Those figures were for current IO prices back in 2012, there was no mention of what Metal Bulletin Research thought IO would be worth in 2020. I don't understand why you are using IO prices from 2012 to calculate what SDL would be earning from concentrate sales in 2020. It doesn't make much sense to me.

If you want to see what the market thinks IO will be worth going into the future have a look at the charts of some IO producers. BHP, RIO, BCI, FMG, AGO etc, all hammered over the last few months after research that over-supply may hit the market from 2014 onwards. The likes of Vale, BHP, RIO & FMG are drastically ramping up production and it's going to start hitting the market from 2014 onwards.

IMO anyone looking at SDL will be looking at the company through the prism of lower IO prices than what the commodity was selling for in 2012. There is also no guarantee that 6 years down the track that the OPEX won't be higher either. These are all risks. Low grade iron ore is not in short supply (there's 80Bn tonnes of IO sitting in just one trough in Canada for instance), the itabirite is not a distinguishing factor for SDL. I'm not saying it wouldn't be profitable, I'm saying IMO that it wouldn't be getting possible suitors hard in the pants.

"Big 4's massive new iron ore supply cutting juniors off at the knees"

http://www.mining.com/majors-are-cutting-iron-ore-juniors-off-at-the-knees-with-massive-new-supply-82888/