itc drilling oil, page-6

hornet - gas
canberra - dud
ventura - oil
mirage - oil
mirage2 - oil

That depends on whether you define success as simply finding hydrocarbons, or find a commercial oil pool. Hornet gas has no market, so it has no NPV at this point in time, and they don't even know if there's sufficient reserves to make it commercial anyway.

Mirage-2 is a development well, so you shouldn't really include that as a part of the exploration success rate.

I believe the average in Cooper Basin is about 45%, but the industry average is closer to about 10-15% for wildcat wells in green fields. So unless all their prospects are close to existing discoveries, it's absurd to assume a uniform average success rate (Chance of success) of over 40% IMHO.

I hold a few oilies including vpe, but not itc.

Good luck to all anyway.

618