Macro sentiment seems to be that the graphite supply shortage...

Macro sentiment seems to be that the graphite supply shortage won't be as severe as anticipated? Depends on how long China keeps the spot price down with their high supply. I know Europe is looking at implementing things like "battery passports" designed to incentivize industry to buy 'greener' graphite which might help local producers. But I'm not across the Australian strategy, how do we compete with Chinese prices when the market we're selling into probably isn't Europe?

I know some people look at ITM as following in the footsteps of RNU. Well as we know RNU recently released their DFS and in it they had a forecast estimate of 2-2.5x the PSG spot price (at the time) just to get the project economics over the line. Just on the assumption that things will turnaround. It's uncertainty like this that will make graphite as an investment feel less solid compared to a year or two ago.

Even with NVX recently...a company making synthetic graphite. They landed a contract to sell their anode for 20-30% less than the benchmark materials estimates. As a result their revenue per ton has become uncomfortably close to their cost to produce. Rebates from the US govt are required to improve their economics. SYR, MNS, other examples where the project economics are thin. The whole market was expecting fat margins but it's not the reality right now.

Given the right conditions I think ITM is a solid little company that should be able to succeed. The doubt is if/when the market/supply/margins will improve so that ITM's graphite plan is economical. But it's out of of ITM's control. I think this is a big factor in why all the ASX graphite plays are down. For most of these graphite operation to make sense the graphite prices have to go up significantly.

(whoops, this was intended for the megathread sorry)