Its a crystal bal

The key term for those not quite sure how the lovely valuation of 19c came to be is 'DCF' or discounted cash flow. The report is simply a spruik based on future assumptions of cash flows discounted for capital costs to give a notional value. The 'notion' in this case is that the combination of factors apparently considered by this analyst result in a projected MC of $500 mill.

On this basis, you could extrapolate whatever top end you liked and arrive a valuation using the same methodology.

The nervous Nellies this morning, before they reach for the cerapax, should see this as a rather silly (but not sinister) attempt at filling a PR vacuum while the SP languished thanks to the Halcon tortoise.

The reality is the evidence is now before the judge...Oil discovery (two zones) at Pierre awaiting clarification , 'imminent' reactivation at Pathfinder Hz1 and 2?, the two remaining IP? at Birch, the advancing Red Bud well approaching completion, Petromax...and other sundry news...yada yada.

Why this frankly embarrassing piece of bog roll was released is beyond me, but I suspect that given its was ripped off the site before reappearing with a fake moustache, that a certain PR firm might have a few questions to answer.

The least this analyst could have done was go for the doctor and use the Cottee target of $1bill MC..then work back from there...What?

I sold a house a few years ago, took it to market on a campaign based on selling at sworn valuation. Figured someone would jump at the chance to pay 'exactly' what it was worth. I got the price I wanted but I went through three valuers until I got a number I liked...

At some point you have to make a distinction between trading value and investment value. Paradoxically the recent CR's have cauterized the market to the extent that the very reason the 10-20% brigade climbed on board has seriously dissipated. That means that the next significant opportunity to dump their punt on AKK may well coincide with a compelling reason to hang on to it...how many traders do we know who are that disciplined?