it's a dud, page-11

Any company whose survival is dependent on one well does not deserve to survive because oil exploration success is less than a 50-50 chance.

But I think the company will survive with the failure of Surprise 1 because CTP has 53m acres of shale gas potential that would interest many players. If Surprise 1 fails, the SP will get hammered because the fear of the SP falling is self-fulfilling.

Those who rely heavily on Surprise 1 will be disappointed but I see the failure as an opportunity. Firstly, shale gas investors can top up at a fraction of the price. Secondly, CTP is forced to bring in a partner. A new partner will mean dilution but at least with the expertise and cash we should be moving forward.

CTP has got it wrong by not getting a farm-in partner. With the failure of the CR, it is exposed to predatory moves and no doubt will pay a heavy price for it. It is all about strategy and expertise, and both are lacking from current management, which should be corrected by a new partner.