Any company whose survival is dependent on one well does not...

Any company whose survival is dependent on one well does not deserve to survive because oil exploration success is less than a 50-50 chance.

But I think the company will survive with the failure of Surprise 1 because CTP has 53m acres of shale gas potential that would interest many players. If Surprise 1 fails, the SP will get hammered because the fear of the SP falling is self-fulfilling.

Those who rely heavily on Surprise 1 will be disappointed but I see the failure as an opportunity. Firstly, shale gas investors can top up at a fraction of the price. Secondly, CTP is forced to bring in a partner. A new partner will mean dilution but at least with the expertise and cash we should be moving forward.

CTP has got it wrong by not getting a farm-in partner. With the failure of the CR, it is exposed to predatory moves and no doubt will pay a heavy price for it. It is all about strategy and expertise, and both are lacking from current management, which should be corrected by a new partner.