Surfrat.I think you are missing the most obvious path with your...

Surfrat.

I think you are missing the most obvious path with your option 1. The simplest path is for RIO to sell to Taurus. There is still the question of mining finance and construction. CGNPC are not a mining company and I suspect they have no interest in becoming one. Once they own all of Extract they will need a partner to develop the mine. RIO will then JV with CGNPC to construct and operate the mine. In return RIO will get part ownership and an offtake partner. A perfect result for them. If CGNPC buys Extract at the current price they will have paid just over A$2bn. The cost to develop the mine is estimated at about A$1.8bn. So after CGNPC gets ownership they JV 50/50 with RIO and RIO pay for the construction. RIO end up owning half of a completed Husab for under $2bn. Why on earth would they want to make a competing bid now? RIOs shareholders will be far from upset, they'll be over the moon.

It's done and dusted as far as I can see. And it's the shareholders who have been robbed.

Option 2 is unlikely. A bid to take out Taurus would need to be far higher than the price now. I can't see who that would be. It won't be a competing Chinese agency so it has to be one of the other Majors. Thats just not going to happen. They don't have the pocket books for it at the moment.

Option 3 Is the short term outcome I fear.