Thx Doogs - I was just suggesting that if there was a trading...

Thx Doogs - I was just suggesting that if there was a trading halt and an announcement re strategic partner made along the lines of what we have been anticipating, then I can easily see .51 conservatively. If SDL release news in increments - resource upgrade first, maybe another player like Avima onboarding, cutting of rail/port costs (been alluded to and I think an ace up the sleeve maybe) and then Finance/offtake then we are likely to see a staircase up to a launch. I am of the view that .51 would be a low SP given a Finance/Offtake derisk.

The downward trend I think has been due to a number of factors:

1. A general insto reweighting out of small/medium cap resource stocks since early Jan.
2. Uncertainity re timing of activities leading to a longer tail speculation. Players will shift out quickly (although the sell off has been slow bleed and not impulsive.)
3. The Hanlong .44 deal pushed the TA down to a break level. .485 was the bottom of the upward trend on my charts. SDL didn't need this at the time. Circumstantial.
4. We were then hit with a cap raise at .405, putting TA pressure on again and a little discomfort re timing.
5. The SP probably overshot to .665 (notice the exhaustion move that day) and was correcting.

While we have eroded substantially, the charts show .51 ish as strong support at a time of anticipation of imminent F/O. The DFS did show a cost increase for sure as well as resource upgrade. I think that a significant derisking piece of news will gap the stock and substantially.

If SDL are saying that there is a 3 year payback on a 4.6 bill investment, then you can do the sums as to the value of the SP. I imagine they are sitting on a lot more then 35 mt and can ship other's ore up to an additional 65 mt pa. The transport revenue itself will be very significant for SDL/partner/Cameroon and Congo govts. At $7 per to, that is $455 million which as a PE of 10 = $4.5 billion. With 3 bill shares, that would be $1.50 SP. These are very broad figures I know but you get the drift. (not sure what the JV arrangements would be of course but let's halve it = .75)

If SDL find say another 10mt in Meridonial and other tenements, and that would be sold at say more the level analysts are recently forecasting for 2015+ $80 (some saying $100 pt) then that would be say $60 pt margin. So 10mt x $60 = $600 mill, which at PE of 10 = $6 bill. That would be $2.00 SP.

These would be in addition to the Mbalam/Nabeba JV. Let's call that .85 as per analyst comments.

Rubbery figures suggest that there would be at least a $3.60 SP (Charlie Aitken's ten bagger potential) around production. The PE might start to factor this in earlier than production, bit like FMG.