Why fertilizer and not the commodities themselves? To me it seems the longer term supply issues in agricultural commodities are likely to come about because of things like weather, change in land use, environmental degradation etc. Commodity prices will reflect all those whereas fertilizer is similar to mineral commodities, sure demand is increasing but can eventually be met with new mines. Looks profitable enough in the short term of course, but may be better alternatives?
Perhaps biotechs with this kind of focus may also be worth a look - do you know of any?
