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18/08/15
11:27
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Originally posted by redrockgeo
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1a) Who's been selling ? Institutions
1b) Who's been buyin ? Mums and dads trying to average down - both from pre-issue shares and 5 cent issue shares
2) Why has selling slowed down ? Because the price better reflects the value of AGO - 5 cents was too high issue price which is why it was so poorly subscribed; and mums and dads can't sell because they're down - instead of taking a loss they prefer to "put them in the bottom drawer"
3) Why is AGO "undervalued" compared to FMG & RIO... where do you begin ?
Iron ore grade, contaminants
High discount to Platts 62% of between 20 & 25%
Ability to generate profit to pay off debt
Access to rail infrastructure
Economies of scale - size of the operations, annual production
Previous share performance freefall from $4.20 to 3 cents without much of a break
Displacement from Chinese market due poor ore quality, leading to reliance on "other" markets like India
Market oversupply continually increasing
4) Loss of $1.2 billion, mostly write-downs - its real money that was spent on assets and asset acquisition, and has been recorded as Assets on the balance sheet. Subsequently the assets have been found to be worthless. It doesn't affect them from now onwards, other than the potential for further write-downs making AGO a very risky investment
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Post TH, if those buying or short covering did not cause even a bear rally, this stock was over before it started reading. Now it is in status quo and no one is really in control. I doubts bear sees any more value shorting and neither Bulls see much value appreciating. I still maintain if punting, FMG offers better volatility.