it's all in the timing

Trying to get my head around a possible Kroombit mine; in anticipation of the soon to be released JORC announcement in May.

Just googling and referring to http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=47641 to get an estimated industry break-even mining cost for zinc and copper :-

a) Zinc ...$0.90-$1.10 per pound (current price $0.70)
b) Copper ... $1.30 per pound (current price $2.12)

Of course, Argonaut’s cost could be cheaper, due to
a) the near surface mineralization
b) being “well located with regard to infrastructure. … due in part to the large number of coal mines and related coal fired power stations in the region … with power, road, rail and port facilities are all located within easy reach of the deposit”

And the forecast for zinc this year onwards is looking quite promising … Here is an example of opinion in the following article in http://www.reuters.com/article/privateEquity/idUSL143559020090501

Which states that :-

* LME zinc stocks now falling
* Unprecedented surge of metal into China
* Concentrates market tightening
* Can mine supply respond ?

It further states that :-

“Many of the junior operators that tried to cash in on the
bull market rally were devastated by the timing and severity of the subsequent crash, particularly since it coincided with a severe constriction in credit availability; while several important established mines are fast approaching the end of their lives”

It concludes that :-

“The forecast 2009 metal surplus may look large but it is fast disappearing into China, even while the raw materials market looks in danger of swinging from surplus into deficit before the year is out”.

So it’s really all in the timing!