At the 21/3/2011 when it was announced by the board that it recommended a buyout offer by Eden oil was $US.101.64 and has since risen to $US.111.86 +10% the $A was 100.50 and has risen to $US.107.50 + 7% ie an increase in the value of the AMU in $US of + 4%
Over the last 5 years increases in the value of oil in $US has been +92% and in the $A exchange rate for $US. has been +43%
Projecting these ratios into the future, both of the above examples suggest that AMU's value will increase with time. So that there has been no $ disadvantage to Eden during the last month since its bid was made, and also there will be no $ disadvantage projecting into future years - in fact quite the contrary.
No one of course can predict what currency exchange rates or the price of oil will be in a few years from now but the above does suggest the current trend.
To get the deal done I suggest from this that AMU would, by late June, have gathered sufficient $US from its sales at current oil prices to pay all or part the $6m.tax for Eden, have $14.5m. in cash in the bank, and still have some funds remaining to pay shareholders all or part of the 2c. dividend.
The quaterly report should give us a much clearer picture of the cash position.
Even if there is not enough funds left for a dividend I would still be happy with 33c. as compared with the current 26.5c.
gk.
AMU Price at posting:
26.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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