hard to say it will crash or not, property is inflated but doesn't mean it will crash.
hockey and Stevens are betting on a lower AUD. that 9 billion loan wasn't for cucumber sandwiches. they are selling AUD and want to buy it back lower.
How are they going to get a lower AUD?
They cant lower rates too much more, with the latest CPI print showing inflation ticking up (1% in a quarter is above the target range)
You can quell rampant house price inflation with more macro prudential controls like the RBNZ has done (recently limiting higher LVR loans to a % of total loan exposure made by banks) and lower rates further but our higher AUD has been keeping non housing inflation down.
So Rates will rise next year, but expect more policy from APRA like NZ has done very soon, that will be the risk to banks if property starts to have a decent bit of a decline the whole Aussie economy is toast.
a recent article in the AFR said The major banks are leveraged about 80 times across their $1 trillion home loan books. Put differently, they are only holding about $1.25 of true loss-absorbing capital against every $100
That is actually quite scary... the government will step in and save them. but it would be ugly should it ever play out.
the sentiment is changing in housing. people are aware that property is just like any other asset class.
Basically the RBA, BANKS and GOV are in quite a tricky situation, they have been a bit behind in the past. interesting times.
