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08/06/18
16:04
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Originally posted by Hotazel
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"...but difficult to work out the reasoning...."
68 000 000 reasons.
28 days before these 10c options expire.
Some are edgy because...
Will management forgo the 68mil??
Even if the SP gets "fudged up" to 12c-15c level.. will management exercise or forego. That will depend on what the real state of play is.. and management would have all the facts and knowledge to know whether it's a safe bet to exercise or whether it's best to forgo(see further below).
And no-one on here should come an say the SP is not being "fudged" right now... The SP was fudged up to 9.9c... supposedly 15mil odd on the buy side and only 3mill odd on the sell side. So someone, on the day had ability to pull 9mil odd sells and then dropped them back on the sell side later the day. And... as a consequence, the SP drops back to 9c on the same day. (I think it was 9c).. and Sell side closes with 12mil odd on sell side and something less on buy side. Joke!! So, someone is acting for someone or has a huge number of shares to play around with and take risk. I believe it's the former.
But back to the first 68 000 000 reasons.
Either a deal has been cut and the news release is being timed, such that it will result in a spike from 9c - 15c or 18c and staying long enough at that level to enable management to exercise and still sell of a part... which will of course result in a sp drop shortly after. But it should settle at a new higher base level e.g 12c where it will then remain for a long time ... through till FID/ SAMO success.
However if they exercise at 10c and they don't sell off any of, that means there is some serious SP appreciation lying ahead..(management putting there money where their mouths are when it comes to SAMO for instance)and we will then see a new base of around 15codd with gradual appreciation as milestone are being ticked off and further increases as we near SAMO.
OR
No deal, no news release and management forgo 68mil options, only then to issue an all new batch of say 80mil exerciseable at say 8c. - ..-Like they did round about 2011/2012 from memory. Worst nightmare because it means there'll not be much in the news pipeline to persuade management to take up the options.
So, it appears as if there are a few itchy fingers out there causing a bouncy ride right now..... Going to be interesting to see what happens now as we get closer to 30 May deadline.
Personally I think a deal had been done and will be declared.. providing scope to exercise 68mil and make handsome gains. At 15c that means a net gain of $3.4mil.. but what then??? hmmm
GLA
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Hot,
The chairman has indicated that they will buy if the PE is successful, so we can rule out a deal there. The only time a deal will be done will be say now, before the debate possibly and definitely before the decision is handed down; then it has to be a bl@*dy good one, especially when FAR at this stage is very confident of their case.
A full carry to production plus 5%?? Even that at current prices of say $4/2C barrel is only value at $428 mil. A lot less than the $500 mil that was thrown around 6 months ago. I suppose that can be the discount for a certainty. That'll give you the 15c you re looking for or a bit more.
So what are you thinking that the deal might be?
KKW