it's elders time, page-26

Hi Lionel

Good Post. I have no objection to posters taking a different view to mine and particularly if they have done there homework as you have. I have only just come into Elders and don't know the story as well as many of the longer term shareholders. My primary reason for taking it on was because all the similar troubled companies with very low price to book ratios have had great recoveries and it raises the question: Why is Elders so different from the rest of them?

Paperlinx is up 41 percent in three weeks or so and hitting a new high today. API is up 40 percent from when I posted a similar argument on that thread. Bluescope and Gunns have both had good rises and maintained them reasonably strongly. Why is Elders the only one of this list that is still trading at record lows. I think the answer is because the major shareholders have been dumping the stock and not because of anything internal to Elders.

In early September, Elders announced the refinancing of its core debt such that the bulk of it would now be classified as non-current. That was a sure sign that Elders debt problems are over for the short to medium term. The market tried to stage a recovery then and CBA destroyed it with massive selling.

In recent times any chance of Elders joining those other stocks in recovery appears to have been destroyed by further selling from the major shareholders. I don't think these guys know any more than we do nor are they any cleverer. One of my standard investment approaches is to do the exact opposite to PPT! When they sell, I buy.

When this selling finishes, Elders in my view is way overdue to join those other stocks and go up 40 percent or more. I just hope I can do my bit to encourage that recovery to happen now.

GPASAS