it's elders time, page-27

Today is starting to look like it could be the largest Elders turnover in six months and I think that is just what the doctor ordered. There are clearly big sellers out there and the day started with a late trade of 6.6 million shares. Since that one trade is more than 1 percent of the total ordinary stock, hopefully there will be substantial shareholder notices in coming days to tell us who bought and who sold.

The comparison I would like to draw is with Paperlinx. If you compare the graphs of the two stock over the last four years you will see that it has been a real fight as to which was the worst dog. Elders has lost something like 99 percent of its price while Paperlinx lost around 97 percent. But look at Paperlinx now. All of a sudden it is up 70 percent from its low 3 weeks ago and now everybody is spruiking it and saying what a great buy it is.

The point I would like to make is this. There is a lot of negativity out there about Elders and it is understandable. But have a look at the posts on PPX three weeks ago compared to now. When the tide turns at Elders and it will turn, it will be dramatic.

I have actually sold almost all of my Paperlinx now (I wish I had sold less yesterday and more today!) and yesterday and today I have doubled my Elders holding contrary to what I thought I would do. Yes, I may get it wrong but I'm game to have the punt. All it takes is one major institution to join the buying side and the posts on this site will be like they are on PPX today.

Because of the PPX share price rise, Elders has now past PPX in having the lowest price/book ratio for any stock on the ASX with current assets more than $800m or revenues more than $2 billion. For me that makes it the best punt out there.

GPASAS