In America:SP500 -0.47%Dow Industrials -0.46%Nasdaq100 -0.23%Dow...

In America:

SP500 -0.47%
Dow Industrials -0.46%
Nasdaq100 -0.23%
Dow Transports -1.13%
Russell 2000 -0.14%

Comment: The market went higher at the opening, sneaking above resistance, said “NO”, and steadily sold off most of the day. Volume was down on past few days. First day of a retrace?

NewHighs/NewLows 150/10. NH>NL. The ratio of NH/(NH+NL) is at 93.8%. In the Do Not Sell Zone. New Lows are benign.

Technical Comment on the SP500:

The SP500 finished at 1409.46. Support/resistance: 1365/1418.65.
MACD Histogram. Marginally above zero. It continues to fall.
MACD. Above zero. Positive.
RSI.9 is at 56.3. Positive. Broke below its up trend line. Not a good sign.
Stochastic. 90.9. Overbought. Still above its signal line but hooking down
CCI.14: +88.5. Dropping below +100. Negative.

Two Momentum Indicators have given “sell” signals. No consensus yet. The chart remains above the 40-Day TMA and the recent uptrend line, so there’s still hope that this is just a small consolidation.

The chart has stalled at a major horizontal resistance level.

This run-up is at an end. The range and duration of any pull-back will decide the fate of the Santa Rally. This could be just a gentle consolidation or something more dramatic.

The comedy of the Fiscal-Cliff continues. Obama has put up an ambit claim. Boehner puts up something quite different. They’re still world’s apart. At least they’re mantras are now being backed by numbers. So that’s a start.

Really, I can’t see, looking at the chart, that the market gives a damn. It makes great copy for the media – but the market isn’t reading the copy. Look at the great rally since 16 November. It’s reading other stuff.

Yesterday, in Australia, the major indices recorded good numbers but market structure and breadth were poor. Our good numbers weren’t confirmed by the Nikkei, China, Singapore or India. Australia got it wrong – but the smarties in Australia got it right.

Now we’ll see what the RBA can do.

Redbacka.