the asx 200 is probably going to 2700-2800. this is not a big...

the asx 200 is probably going to 2700-2800. this is not a big suprise. hold off buying until then!

this is not a regular mild recession.
2009 is a write off.
maybe half of 2010 also
credit will not be easily available until a year or 2
businesses will not grow & flourish as they did the past 2-3 yrs.
not so many new businesses will be launched or be expanding in the next couple of yrs. there will be less businesses around, so less insurance needed.

its my opinion. what do u guys think?

also insurance companies are being smashed in the US so its having a follow on affect here.

the current qbe share price brings it back to around mid 2005. around the time businesses were flourishing in this false market.

im worried that this stock is going back towards $11 - $13 some time in 2009 if the asx drops to 2700 or so which is very possible.

im not being all doom. im just trying to put some rational on the share price. i have liked qbe for a long time and i was upset i missed it at around $22 late last year but its evident to me now that the world is in a very very bad shape and there is so much fear in this market now.

im thinking i may sit back and not be so trigger happy to buy at prices that seem so good based on what we know or were used to over the past few years but the past few years was a flase market as we see now.

Im thinking our worst 6 months financial results for the market overall must be in this half year. No christmas sales for the retailers, no boom period as the previous 6 months still had mid last year. i think when the results are released in 6 months time for this half year, it must be worse than now so im going to wait till next August unless i see something ridiculously cheap like qbe at $11.

thoughts people?