Your'e definitely on the right track with your analysis Wilbur70 .
And it's interesting when we look at the approximate numbers around the trading leading into the ' Entitlements Options Offer '. And when I refer the ' recent ' trading numbers , I mean those which roll back at least to the time of the $2.7 million placement at 1.0 cents - and if you all remember, this was at the same time when it was announced to the market that there would be a ' follow on ' options issue.
I find it interesting because this was just over a month earlier give or take from the 14th August announcement than when they went ' Ex Entitlement ' on 10th September. So I ask myself what more or less happened between those dates. So for the purposes of this exercise , lets simply use the ASX traded numbers during that period. What we find then is that there was a total of 2,151,963,023 shares which changed hands between the resumption of trading on the 14th August and right up until the day before the entitlement went ' Ex ' on 9th of September.
So if we then allow for approximately one third extra at least for the Chi-x trades , we could then call it an ' Even ' 3 Billion shares being turned over ......or in effect by using a 1 to 1 relationship to the total SOI , an approximate turnover of the total approximate shares on issue of at least once at 1.5 Billion shares.
So I reckon we can all agree that this turnover or ' scramble ' to obtain additional stock contributed significantly for good reason the escalation in the SP and the ' overshoot ' of the 4.0 cent level and to the ' mid 4's ' intra day high of 4.4 cents on BOTH the 7th and 8th of September.
Add to these observations the fact that on the 4 days leading into the ' Ex-Date ' commencing from the Friday before on 4th September ....these four days has more or less similar volumes and averages around the 62 million mark. Add to that on the very next days trade and the ' Ex-date ' another 62 million were traded out. Furthermore and apart from yesterday's trading , there has been 168,890,109 shares traded on the ASX in the 6 days following the ' Ex-date ' for an average of almost HALF the 60 million ' Pre-Entitlement ' trading at 28.15 million.
So I guess the key observations that can be interpolated from this analysis is
FOURFOLD...... 
in that
FIRSTLY , the traded volumes right back to when the stock resumed trading following the $2.7 million placement appears to be very ' orderly ' and almost ' algorithmic ' is a sense that back to back trading days are ' symmetrical '......and this would largely explain Investor's assumptions and positionings around more a 1 to 1 ' allocation ' thesis and not the 1 for 2 that I had suggested. Of course we all know now that it actually became a 1 for 4 entitlement. My
SECOND key observation would be to say that effectively the total traded numbers would then tell a historical story that Investor's were prepared to BID up the stock and accumulate an additional share for every share held until virtually the music stopped on the 9th September leaving them with
DOUBLE the amount of stock for what then transpired to only a
QUARTER more stock through the allocation.
O.K ...so from there , my THIRD observation would be that this somewhat ' orderly ' accumulation could again be seen distinctly on a whole different level in the 4 days prior to going ' ex - entitlement ' PLUS the first day trades on the ' Ex-Date' representing more or less 25% of the total stock traded to that date with the ' Ex-Date ' trades representing 20% of the FULL 5 days leading into and including the ex-date. This would reaffirms to me that it is these 4 - 5 days which really indicate the ' intended ' last minute scramble to add to Investors position , and which is further supported by the known fact that the ' allocation formulae only became apparent to the market on the 7th September when the options issue was proposed and announced......
My FOURTH and final point in review would be that since the first days sell off on the ex-date , we have seen only amounts which represent HALF of these post prospectus and pre- ex date entitlement volumes which would indicate that MOST Investors are happy to hold their positions until they see what transpires with their tradeable options .......and as a result , it would appear that MOST of the 1.5 Billion shares traded since 14th August or at least 75% have remained in the hands of the holders who bought into this emerging story.
What happens from here remains to be seen , however it's no wonder there are people who are ' salty ' and who would just like the opportunity to grab some ' cheap ' 2.5 cent Options on listing. What better way to do it than ' Down Ramp ' the Company and the Head Stock up until then. Of course the easy answer to all this is to simply
NOT SELL to them .....
(20min delay)