You're exactly right mate and thanks for highlighting these important points. COVID-19 has indeed changed the World almost ' immeasurably ' in terms of ' fast-tracking ' and transforming the Economy. And I know in many ways it's been said before - but this time really is different ....namely because it has highlighted and exposed the inherent ' vulnerabilities ' in our Traditional Markets and Economies.
Sure It was happening before ......however it wasn't as much as a priority then as it is now.. Businesses need to ' re-invent ' by exploring and ' investing ' in ways they can become more competitive and productive .....even in the face of the most adverse and extreme scenarios they may face.
So whether it is Bush Fires , other Natural Disasters , or indeed Climate Change in general ......it shouldn't matter whether you are in a Extended Drought or a Protracted Pandemic induced Recession , the show will go on with respect to the way Technology is applied in your organisation . Whether it's improvements in supply chains and logistics or improved time management and seamless processes streamlining the Administrative and Finance Functions......money and capital will be saved and business profits will grow and survicer. That is inevitable.
In fact if we were to get more into the ' existential ' and ask ourselves the question of ' Are we really going to see ' another material shift or extension in the ' Neo Liberal ' idea or proposition of ultimately more Jobs inevitably being created from more Entrepreneurs . I touched on this yesterday with respect to a potential increase in ABN's . I say this because I cannot see a world in which business changes are made to survive , and then go back to the exact same operating conditions and methodologies as they had before.
And you're exactly spot on with your observation of the role of Government ' Stimulus ' and support for Individuals and Businesses. Right now , I would say we are largely more representative of the Phase in stimulating the economy through supporting the Individual through programs like Job Keeper . And yes , this also helps the Organisation to continue to meet it's payroll while it finds alternative savings and methods of self-sustaining its Operations . So Win -Win - Win for the Businesses , Individual , and the Economy overall.
But you're right in suggesting that the ' Next ' 2 phases will be more about how to stimulate BOTH the support for Businesses coming out the other side of COVID as well as ' Promoting ' the creation of ' NEW ' business ideas , products , and services.
So whether you are in Health , Medical , Education , Manufacturing , Food , Entertainment , or any other service problem which has been ' Unmet ' for the Consumer or Business - there will be a business emerge and evolve to ' fix ' the problem with the answer of some ' Application '
And it is very very likely that the accepted Economic Textbook's with their Philosophies which ultimately emanate from the likes of Keynes , Smith , Friedman , Marshall or Ricardo - it is most likely they will be significantly re-written into the annals of past events and times and more into the largely changing future. A good example is there are discussion in some circles of taking the concept of ' Quantitative Easing ' to the next level in suggesting they perhaps consider the US Government issues a $100 TRILLION - 100 year bond to virtually ' PAY ' for the fixes on the Economy TODAY for a long term Mortgage on the Future ....thereby allowing the longer term inflation effect to look after the upfront COST . Not a bad idea really. When you consider the Banking Industry has entertained an increase in the historically accepted home mortgage terms to 40 years from 30 ...even promoting in some early cases the ' Reverse ' Negative Interest Mortgage.
So if anything , maybe we are actually learning from the BNPL concept in ' Buying NOW the complete FIXES to the economy including a move back to full employment by PAYING for these fixes over the longer haul of 100 years. Makes sense right ...
given it only took a 100 year virus to virtually wreck havoc and destroy a World Economy which took perhaps Decades to Build.
And we can see these sorts of packages in motion and starting to emerge along this line of thinking. More recently they can be seen in the various support packages which have just been released in Victoria with their $3 Billion ' Third Round ' , which are largely focused around BIG business at the moment with grants of $10 K , $15 K , and $20 K - with the lower end being for Payrolls less than $650 K , and the larger grant categories for Payrolls from $650 K up to $3 million , and then $3 million to $10 million payrolls. On top of this there is the Business Support Fund which provides a further $10 K for ALL businesses who have had to endure and been affected by the prolonged ' Lockdown ' in Melbourne - and $5 K for Rural Businesses. Then there is Tax deferral for Payroll Tax and literally millions more for Melbourne CBD businesses. So lots of money ' Sloshing ' around in support of Businesses at the present moment with ALL of this being just at the ' State Level ' of Government assistance.
Makes sense then that if your business is viable and can show some level of ' reasonableness ' in it's turnover , a further pre-approved credit clearing line , which is provided against Debtor's balances certainly wouldn't go astray at the present moment right ....
So as you say , there will be more stimulus packages rolled out in Phase 3 and 4 for the creation of ' NEW ' businesses and / or the expansion of ' Existing ' projects or Businesses. This is virtually a certainty in my opinion.
So once again , great post , thanks for sharing , and YES it's a ' Crazy World ' ...
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