It's just the beginning for Spenda!, page-11458

So, quarter over. We have about a month until 4C. Time to make some estimate:
- Lending will remain disappointing. The latest issuance of options to the warehouse funder implies an utilisation of just $14.6mio. I am still worried about whether SPX truly has access to $50mio and that is a question for the next webinar or even AGM. Assuming an average loan book financed by the DW of $13mio (vs $10.6mio last quarter), the same average yield and still retaining $1.3mio of loan on balance sheet, I get to $0.75mio revenues.
- Saas revenues should increase, with Capricorn paying $152k pm. I have no information on any other Saas revenues, so penciling $460k here.
- Payment revenues are more difficult to estimate. They had $44.9mio payment volume in the last quarter, but it is unclear how much revenues this generate. Does the virtual EFT generate any revenue? The latest Payfac announcement only forecasts $100mio payment volumes at 1%. If I use this for the September quarter, that is $250k. I think there is a fair bit of uncertainty on this number though. I'd say the range is $200-400k.
- All in, my estimate comes out at $1.4-1.6mio.
- Keeping operating costs unchanged and applying 9.75% to the DW, I get a bottom line loss of $775-975.
- I am not expecting the R&D cheque this quarter, but in the next one. I imagine that many will therefore drum up a cashflow positive December quarter. Strictly speaking likely correct, though obviously not so relevant in terms of estimating the bottom line for the future quarters.

So, I expect slow progress. Slower than I'd want it to be on the lending side definitely. If, big if, they could originate another $30mio worth of loans, they would basically be CF+... And at this stage, they still have the financial capacity to do it ($3mio of first loss).

Very curious to see whether payment revenues will finally accelerate, which would be great news (less capital intensive than lending). I am not overly optimistic there as the Payfac announcement is not so different from what was already announced at the end of last year. But hey, maybe then then "forgot" to mention the implementation period...

And Capricorn/Agri still elusive. They don't have much financial resources so I wouldn't expect a new DW at this stage. At least until SP increases and they can execute another CR.