CVI 0.00% 0.3¢ cvi energy corporation limited

Angry,I'll give you twenty reasons...First...I do not expect...

  1. 15,276 Posts.
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    Angry,

    I'll give you twenty reasons...

    First...I do not expect another entitlement or bonus event so close to the previous. They have enough for immediate cash needs and the larger cash requirements for developments etc will be bigger than could be raised via shareholders anyhow.

    Second...my options investment is just that, a long term investment...as such, anything cheaper than the heads is attractive. At $1, 85-90c is just as nice, especially with more stock!

    Third...I am expecting a major breakout on the heads any day, as such we need to ignore the difference between the two issues for our measure of premium, as most significant runs in shares are preceeded by a higher than normal premium on any options that may exists...assuming of course smart money goes there first.

    Fourth...given likely near-term events in relation to life of these options, I do not actually view the current options price as expensive. 10c is about right, plus or minus 2-3c as the market prepares for swings, in either direction.

    Fifth...It was no more than a top-up for me to achieve a nice round number in my Number 2 account.

    Sixth...I see a fall-back value on CVI with Cameroon in their back pocket, of 50-60c...as such, I am not interested in scrounging around for half and one cent cheaper entries on something so undervalued, especially when it is highly likely to be put in a trading halt at any minute. I would rather go fishing than scab around watching the screen for a cheaper price on what effectively is a small order relative to my combined holdings.

    Seventh...mind blank, will think of one in a minute.

    Eight...I am not the only one thinking the options are attractive, as evidenced from the lack of selling of options and genuine buying interest there. In fact, I suspect a few have swapped from the heas into options, in the process locking in profits whilst buying back the same units via the options. This is a typical pattern we usually see from those with very cheap entry levels.

    Nine...I can buy more options with my money than heads, even with the premium. When expecting much higher values on a compnay near term, focus should be on obtaining maximum unit exposure rather than simply achieving a bargain.

    Ten...I actually want to buy buy quiet a few more than those picked up today (that was not my only order), so given the options have now been trading long enough...and at enough of a premium that most who wanted to exit would have done so...the chances of obtaining decent volume cheaper is diminishing daily. I expect they will become rather scarce soon, to the extent paying the premium today may well get me stock that I would have to pay more for tomorrow.

    Eleven...trading patterns in the heads have completely changed. What we have seen in the last few days is simply the residual of temporary traders making their exit. The result is a register gradually shifting very much in favour of sit and hold shareholders...the sort that greatly enhance the rate of rise on the right news.

    Twelve...if you think I have paid to much, I suggest you try to get them cheaper.

    Thirteen...with Germanny interested, there is a very good chance we will wake up one morning to a massive gap up...this is often their way.

    Fourteen...with Cameroon in the back pocket, virtually all risk of retracing to much lower levels has been removed. The premium built into the price in speculation of this event has now been fully justified...in fact, the heads are now lagging considerably the underlying speculative value here. These sorts of imbalances can hang around, or they are just as likely to be rectified in an instant. Just one decent recomendation, or "piece to the puzzle" announcment can do it.

    Fifteen...I bought them because I had spare cash.

    Sixteen...to date my musings have been pretty spot on, as such, assuming my next one is equally close, there is a chance we may well see the "trigger" the market is waiting for in the coming days.

    Seventeen...DOW futures pointing to an UP night, with oil likely to rise also = positive morning for us and potential new buyers for the stock tomorrow. Not much buying needed now to push it over the edge.

    Eighteen...fundamental incentive exists now for both Turnberry and indeed CVI supporters to generate higher prices. Turnberry obviously becuase their deal is done...and CVI because a higher market cap will enhance their bid for the Kwanza blocks and/or negotiations with neighbors over gas/oil development cost sharing.

    Nineteen...the little voices in my head told me to.

    Twenty...tomorrow is Thursday. The vast majority of key breakouts or pivot significant trading days, from periods of consolidation after a rise in CVI, have taken polace on a Thursday...2 Aug...9 Aug...23 Aug...30 Aug...27 Sept...11 Oct...18 Oct...further, almost all tight range, reducing volume periods of consolidation have been followed by a major break.
 
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