Biota definitely has the fundamentals according to us holders...
...but
...up till now, the only time in recent memory, we have seen the SP perform to anything near expected (by us) was for the 12 month Swine Flu Pandemic period (Apr 2009-Mar 2010); in fact, the SP peaked in October 2009 and then began to fall, so anyone getting in after October 2009 would have only made money if they "traded" the stock rather than buying on medium to long term fundamentals. Buyers in the $1-$2 range will require a serious rerate before these holders get the return they expect and deserve.
We have also seen some instances since 2010 where a run looked possible, only to falter and quickly fall back to sub $1 territory.
I have communicated with management on multiple occasions since 2009 and the message pretty much from May 2010 onwards has always been that the company is underperforming and the SP should be higher - this is despite milestones such as acquisitions of Maxthera & Prolysis and their programmes (and personnel), the Inavir launch in Japan, BTA798 (Vapendavir) Phase 2a and 2b successful trials, $US231m BARDA grant for LANI Phase 3 trials. I'll add that we have been lucky to have a substantial holder (East Hill Holdings) come on board since December 2010, courtesy of their interest in Prolysis - East Hill are possibly sitting not too far above breakeven point.
In the times I have communicated with management, I have heard their complaints about HotCopper posters - the so called radicals - and also the reasons why the SP is so low - the manipulators. I'm sure recent communicators with management will be getting the same message. The message hasn't changed.
My feeling has also been that (in the past) there has been an expectation that things would just fall into place value wise once LANI phase 3 would be derisked. First expectation was that a licensee would waltz in and offer mega bucks and then when this didn't happen, there were hints of and subsequent confirmation of US Govt backing via BARDA - obviously a great result.
There has always been (IMO) an arrogant, expectation from management that things would just happen for the company - in effect, that they are the only "golden egg" out there and that investors and suitors would be knocking the door down to buy up...
...none of this has happened. Up until now, the only trigger we have seen was the Swine Flu Pandemic, despite all the promise.
This has all led to management claiming that the company is misunderstood in Australia and that US options would be explored in order to finally release value for long-suffering holders.
Unfortunately, the reality is that PC and DL have been unable to satisfactorily excite investors/partners/suitors/the media. They have failed - pure and simple. They have certainly wasted opportunities on the PR side of things and in the various broker rounds, what sort of excitement has there been? Certainly not reflected in the SP. Maybe they've actually succeeded in attracting manipulators who recognise the dour attempts by PC and DL to excite investors have failed and so manipulators have been able to pray on disenchanted holders?
Well, the time has come.
The last year has been Jim Fox's time - while PC and DL have been doing the usual stuff and holding the fort, hopefully JF is the deal-maker. He came along after no licensee was forthcoming on LANI and established a new attitude as far as commercialisation is concerned - certainly to try to take candidates all the way through (or closer) to commercialisation in order to maximise value, rather than dying on the vine via poor royalty deals.
So this is where we are. No value factored into the SP, no fault of management - whatever they want to blindly believe.
Most holders don't want to wait till 2016/17 (when LANI is launched ROW) to see the SP rise (we know that is likely) - but we've been built up and promised by mgt that by June this year, we'd be presented with a near-term opportunity to unlock the value we've been expecting.
Whether its a LANI or HRV spinoff, a Merger, a straight Nasdaq list, or even a friendly takeover, management have been paid good money to finally return the favour to holders.
Holders will very soon want the option to sell at a profit, or hold for greater reward.
Its make or break time for management and holders.
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On a side note, if Jim Fox has been putting a big effort in to turn things around for the company (and I know he traveled a fair bit to the US for various negotiations in 2011), what is his reward? I don't think his Directors Fees are large and I'm not sure how many shares he holds. I'd love to have seen a lot of examples of him buying, but maybe he has never been in a position to buy due to the nature of ongoing negotiations - I certainly hope that is the reason!
BTA Price at posting:
94.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
