it's mild, they said, page-9

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    "cases rose by 1.7% BUT testing dropped by a whopping 73%.
    109,545 tests versus 149,261 the day before
    positivity rate increasing,"


    For starters, 109,545 represents a 27% drop in testing, not 73%.
    (But that's the least problem with your post).

    So that this is not an example of mere Garbage-in; Garbage-out, can you answer this:

    Are the number of cases reported on a given day directly derived from the number of people tested on that same day? Or does it take a few days for test results to come from the labs?


    For, if it takes, say 2 days (or 3 day or 4 days, or whatever) days to process the tests, then to monitor true positivity rates, the number of reported cases that went up 1.7% today should be compared to the change in test numbers 2 (or 3 or 4 days ago (or however many days it currently takes for results to become available after testing).

    For example, here are the test numbers over the past 5 days (along with the % change on the previous day):

    Most recent: 109,545 (-27%)
    Previous day: 149,261 (-9%)
    Two days ago: 164,114 (+2%)
    Three days ago: 160,471 (+6%)
    Four days ago: 151,443 (+11%)
    Five days ago: 136,72

    So the 1.7% increase in cases seen today therefore corresponds - not to your assertion of a "whopping 73% drop in tests" - but to either a 2%, 6% or 11% increase in the number of people that were tested, respectively, 2, 3 or 4 days ago (which responds to the 18 to 72 hour wait times currently being experienced.)

    In which case, there is currently no increase in the positivity rate, contrary to your assertion.

    Whenever it comes to dealing with the synthesis of data, I'm always wary of signs of Garbage-In; Garbage-Out.

    (Apologies if that does not fit your preferred narrative)
    Last edited by madamswer: 26/12/21
 
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