For me Pisces the biggest mistake made by many here was not reading the macro economic situation better.
I'm not so sure about that domum. The macroeconomic situation isn't the prime cause of CCC's demise. Sure, the RB price could have gone down (and did) but CCC have shown that even at these prices their mining operations are cashflow positive.
Vlak wasn't even really affected by the RB price because it's domestic coal, its main driver was simply achieving good volumes.
And Ferr's margins would drop to almost nothing at $80/t RB price, but Ferr is approaching the end of its life so that's not a big issue either. At these prices Ferr would at worst be treading water - not going under and making a huge loss.
So if it wasn't the macroeconomic situation that was the mistake we investors made, what was it?
1. Believing the company's forecasts on things like DeWitt BFS, Pen startup date, VanMag, etc. Fair enoug, but most of us can only go on what the company tells us. Perhaps we should have noticed the warning signs earlier, and all got out when the DeWitt debacle became clear.
2. Not correctly deducing the impact of the convoluted ownership structure and terribly overweight management and costs, and how 'treading water' for the mining operations became drowning in concrete shoes.
In hindsight, it's hard to see how CCC could ever make serious money even at RB of $110/t. Any major gross profit would just be slaughtered in dilution, debt, overheads, and paying salaries of 87 directors and managers (or however many there are).
So when you look at it like that, I don't think the macroeconomic situation is the cause of CCC's demise. It's entirely their own fault.
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