Its Over

Originally posted by Charkitz ↑

You make some good points as always Ronnie, hopefully my optimism isn't misplaced!

The big difference between the GFC and now as far as I can tell is that the 3 years leading up to 2007 saw an unprecedented rise in share prices. They balooned to a whopping level. People who bought in 2006-07 were bearnt, giving the impression that the market had imploded, but in reality it just fell below the long term trend line. Whereas now the market is still only trending at the long term mean, keeping in mind that the ASX is only now reaching where it was in 2007

The graph here shows it quite clearly if when the historical chart is clicked and set to Max

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/stock-market

Also, immigration is the main reason inflation hasn't gone anywhere. Immigration creates more competition and immigrants to western world countries are generally willing to work longer hours for less pay. That has all sorts of flow on effects

And of course there's more competition in most sectors anyway created by the online world that we now accept as normal. Whether it be airlines, retail, health etc. The days of companies having a monopoly are mostly gone, with the exception of airports and maybe one or two others

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While you are referring largely to the ASX, I was referring mainly to Wall Street, because whatever happens there affect the entire world. No doubt it is great to see the ASX going back to its pre GFC high and play catch up with Wall Street, we should not have stayed so low for so long.

I should make it clear that I am not saying the Big Kahuna will happen this year, which if you read my earlier posts I indicated that would be unlikely. But a correction as you say (10% down) is either in the process and if once over, could clear the way for a better final quarter for this year; however if this is not the correction, then IMO it could happen in the seasonal Oct timeframe - so I think it is going to be rather fluid and volatile from here on until perhaps Nov or even Dec (Brexit is also Oct 31). But for microcaps, a correction is still a painful event as they correct more than the indices. As for the Big Kahuna, this is just waiting to happen (as we are at the precipice) with risks building up every each day , we just don't know when but we ought to understand the potential wreckage force that will be unprecedented and to know how best to avoid being in the maelstrom as it happens.

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/stock-market

I looked at the chart you posted above, it looks like the ASX could well retrace from here after failing to shoot past the 2007 high, unfortunately interrupted by the Dow falls at the beginning of this week. Lets see how the local market responds today for an idea of direction.