I read an article that claims that the quarter or two preceding the US presidential election is usually bearish due to uncertainties on who the next President will be and what that will mean for the markets- as the next US election is in Nov 2020, the period between March- October 2020 may be dicey -more so if it is say Elizabeth Warren vs Trump , pick your poison (talking from a market participant perspective with vested interest for what is good for the market). So if this month or two turns out to be the correction we have to have, we may well see a better end of year to 1st Q 2020 if things don't go pear shape from here before the next bear phase months before the election. But if the correction does not happen just yet, we may just muddle through before we see it in the last quarter of this year which leaves less time room for sentiments to recover before that March-Oct 2020 period.
As I said before, indices do not reflect well how the market performs over time as it excludes stocks that turn to be dogs and replace them with stars, so how not to do well over time? Mainstream fundies have vested interest to perpetuate the "Buy and Hold"mantra so their FUM (funds under management) continue to rise. As you have seen in my example above, if you held RHC , a good stock, from 21 Feb 2018 to 31 July 2019 about 1.5 years, your gain would have been 6.2% , if you had placed in a term deposit over the same period, you could have gained 2.9% so you are better off by just 3.3% which is just mediocre considering the risk premium one should get for parking in equities. But avoiding the bear phase and buying /selling during the bull phase earns you 37% (can this 37% hold from here, can APX hold its 165% gain thus far in this bull phase?).
