Its Over, page-11995

There is now a great risk that the West may be too emboldened and going over the top with sanctioning and punishing Russia , welcoming Ukraine into NATO at just about the wrong time and now possibly contemplating an oil sanction next with SPR release in motion, without risking that the cornered animal Putin would strike back with force; are we to expect that he would just soak up all the increasing pressures. Increasing sanction pressures though justified for Putin’s criminal action is unlikely to make him stop and withdraw without Ukraine consenting and agreeing with his demands. Markets are now just looking as if the sanctions are just one way street with limited effect on the West, in other words the hit is largely a Russian story. But markets may be misplaced on two counts 1) that the Russian and European contagion would not hit financial and economic supply chains to the detriment of the global economy and a naive view that the deflationary spiral effects are well on the way in the horizon 2) that Russia could strike back in ways to hurt the interests of the West (US and Europe) whether that comes from a suspension of gas to Europe, a cyber attack on key infrastructure including financial and trading platforms and worse an escalation into direct war with Europe.
Market participants looking solely at market indices for direction should consider that If It has not happened does not mean that it won’t. We should be Ahead of the Curve and brace for the worst and hope for the best. The way everything is escalating can easily get us into an unintended spiral that becomes too difficult to unravel.