10-2 is now down to 36...

10-2 is now down to 36
https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/10-2-year-treasury-yield-spread-advanced-chart

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Stocks, Crude, & Crypto Crumble

BY Zero Hedge
FRIDAY, MAR 04, 2022 - 08:01 AM
It has been 13 years to the day since Barack Obama called the bottom in stocks. On March 3rd, 2009, President Obama said:
"What you're now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it,"
And since then the S&P is up 527%...


Source: Bloomberg
Today, however, saw stocks lower on the day... but not this much...

Earlier gains in stocks (and drops in oil) came after reports of an imminent Iran deal, but that was walked back quite fast reversing those moves early on. Then remarks from French President Macron regarding his downbeat call with Putin sent stocks reeling lower...

Additionally, Fed Chair Powell had a 'whatever it takes' moment when asked what he will to do to regain 'stable prices'. However, as always, once Europe closed, the bid returned... until 1430ET - margin call time...

Today's drop took all the majors red for the week, seemingly unable to hold the highs from that crazy meltup last Friday. Of course, with payrolls tomorrow, it's anyone's guess what we end up with in stocks...

Russian stocks were a bloodbath again today with RSX down over 20% more after suspending creations last night... with a 400% premium to NAV!!

Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices actually fell today - despite Russian tensions - as headlines reported the Iran deal is imminent which would add significant supply to the extremely tight market...

The issue is - with the supply lines to retail in America - the odds of $4 national average gas at the pump is extremely high already...

Source: Bloomberg
And as Jim Bianco noted, the die is cast on the next recession...
Bitcoin slipped lower today as headline after headline hit discussing crypto as a way to evade sanctions and the need for sanctions, control etc...

Source: Bloomberg
But while stocks (geopolitical risk and Fed), oil (Iran nuke deal imminent), and crypto (lots of regulation/evasion headline chatter) were all lower on the day, bonds and gold and the dollar were bid.
Yields were mixed with the long-end outperforming and short-end yields slightly higher (10Y -4bps, 2Y +2bps). On the week, the belly is a notable outperformer (7Y -13bps) with both 2Y and 30Y down around 4bps

Source: Bloomberg
Which flattened the yield curve (2s10s) to new cycle lows...

Source: Bloomberg
Powell reaffirmed his view on a 25bps hike in March, but the market priced-in another hike for the whole year (now pricing in 6 full hikes by the end of 2022)...

Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied back to recent highs again today...

Source: Bloomberg
The Ruble closed at a new record low at around 109/USD (though off the lows of the day at around 118/USD)

Source: Bloomberg
Gold was also bid as a safe-haven today, rising back to $1940...

Source: Bloomberg
Just for fun, we noticed that Oil prices (in oz of silver) are heading back up to long-term resistance. A barrel of crude has cost between 2 Oz and 5 Oz of silver for most of the last 50 years...

Source: Bloomberg
Finally the FRA/OIS spread is surging higher, signaling stress in the banking sector is starting to rise...

Source: Bloomberg
We are not at anything like panic-levels yet, but it is a key variable to watch as this crisis continues.