Yield curve inversions “predicted 7 out of 9 recessions during the post-war period. This is a track record any economist would be proud of,” wrote Sung Won Sohn, professor of economics at Loyola Marymount University and president of SS Economics. “If the inversion started today, the economy could be in a recession within a year.”
A recession on average follows 22 months after inversion of the 2-10 yield spread, according to Credit Suisse analysis, but one has occurred in as little as 14 months after the signal, the firm found.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond traded slightly above its all-time low at 2.15%. Yields fall as bond prices rise.
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