I think you guys know that I am not a perma bear although I am very wary of the bear - because this time is like no other- which is why I don't want to be caught up at the wrong end of the stick and cash my chips while I am ahead (stay nimble always). Its war like environment we live in, but as kids we can come out and play when the coast is clear. Right now, the war sirens are interrupting the peace intermittently with eerie calm while we wait to know which way it goes, and perhaps we can come out to play again. But if play we must we must be conscious that the storm is on the horizon.
Right now, main priority I reckon is to ensuring capital preservation. Maintaining capital and hopefully some returns intact ensures you stay on top to take advantage when share prices become cheap again (difficult to commit more when you are already committed heavily in a declining market), the price to pay is missed opportunity if market can overcome this present tantrum and scale even higher (but still a missed opportunity to gain more is less worse than losing all returns and capital).
While it is likely there could be bouts of positivism stemming from developments in the trade war issue and interest rate cycle, buy and hold participants would still never sell when such opportunity arise when sp goes higher , only to see them go down thereafter after those initial excitement dissipates. Interest rate cuts to zero have been more or less acknowledged by the market, can they really serve as a permanent salvation? Can earnings get higher from here , we know banks, telcos, industrials are facing tougher business environments as would commodity related stocks from a slowing China in the months and quarters ahead.
And stockmarkets globally have had a very good start in 2019 since the end of the nasty decline we saw last December. So if the markets can continue to prosper ahead, a correction, though not a big one, is probably one that needs to occur to remove the exuberance, create a clean slate and lowered to attract new participants and hopefully begin a new mini bull within a bear cycle. That would be the best outcome, though inevitably (yes I use the word inevitable too) the longest bull cycle must come to an end in the near and foreseeable future.
