Lronnie made it clear it was not a discussion thread so as to not bog down the commentary in endless back and forth. That should have been respected.
His stream of postings was an interesting pooling of many sources. Some I read anyway elsewhere but many I did not as it takes too long to hunt them down. It was a very useful thread to check in on.
Market timing of macro is tricky and lonely. But like low lying northern rivers residents, while ignoring the day to day weather is safe enough, ignoring la Nina, climate change and historically rare flood events is very painful.
Warren Buffet says he is a buy and hold forever investor. But he holds 30% cash as he can't find value at the moment. So what is he doing? Market timing.
All the investments adviser talk about not timing the market. But when serious macro events happen they say "great time to buy" but never explain where the investors are supposed to have sourced enough cash to do so in a meaningful or life changing way. Trimming positions at peaks might give you some cash. But big wins require bigger reserves - so you have to sell / rebalance at some scale sometimes to reduce risk and create opportunity.
The market may sail on through 2022 on hope and hype but I have never seen such a long list of serious risk events stacked up or the fed in such an awkward no win situation.
Hopefully lronnie will return one day soon to balance out the permabull mindset.
