Everyone can have an opinion on a prediction, but if I were to...

Everyone can have an opinion on a prediction, but if I were to make any, they would not be based on hunch, it should be based on keen observation and good rationale /reasoning. Again, no one can make correct prediction that can turn out correct the next day, the next week or the next month, even Michael Burry was 2 years too early, but still it is worthy note to know in advance so you can take pre-emptive action before the event arrives. Many of the things we see and note are well acknowledged, including how so far deviated stock prices are relative to their underlying fundamentals, but as long as the markets didnt care about fundamentals, no one is as everyone is in party mode. Except that when the party already ended, some are still in hangover mode and refuse to leave. And of course there are those that will never leave the party even when it long gone.

My message has always been to cherish one's gains and protect them. But most would not think of doing that until they're actually been threatened.

Buy and Hold is great at the right period of the market.

But Not when
* we're likely to be heading for a recession
* continued earnings growth would be a hard ask
* sector enjoying big exuberance may experience exodus
* exuberance has been defeated and markets in decline

Suffer a 50% stock loss, and it would take a 10% pa gain over 7 years to get back to break even. So what good is Buy and Hold if you can see losing 50%.