With recession fears in play, even a one day bounce cannot sustain as Dow futures looking ugly, down 430pts at this point. AUD falling below 69c is an indication of a major Risk Off. More notably, commodities are falling sharply, Dr Copper has broken the $4 mark and down to $3.90 for a 3.36% decline, and Oil has dropped as low as US102+ and appears to have broken through its upward trajectory line with XLE futures now down 3.8% (after the 5% rise yesterday).
A day late can be a difference to a large position.
The problem with technical analysis waiting for trend violation is that you start to sell only after the confirmation and that can be typically 20% lower. But if you act before the masses and take profits while the going is good and knowing what is upcoming [oil/commodity traders selling out upon recession/demand destruction narrative], you could have averted the correction.
Listening and staying tuned to the narrative has been the way I approached it, not waiting for the narrative to permeate into mainstream, that is like starting to queue for toilet paper when the word is out that there is a critical shortage.
1 day view then 1 year view
OIL_CRUDE Charts and Quotes — TradingView
I gave you lots of heads-up, in fact literally every day for the past weeks/months about the commodity correction.
Look at the 5 year Copper chart and you can see it is staring into an abyss. The worse to come is still ahead.
COPPER Charts and Quotes — TradingView
Get this, commodity stocks correction (or further correction) is unlikely to correlate proportionately to the movement in the S&P500. It could get uglier because it had to correct more after a resounding rally earlier on (peaking in April 22).
Even Gold is getting sold down to $1825 and $1815 must hold tonight , otherwise $1800 test coming up.
The early bird catches the worm. It is no longer early but still earlier.
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