Its Over

Originally posted by 1ronnie: ↑

With recession fears in play, even a one day bounce cannot sustain as Dow futures looking ugly, down 430pts at this point. AUD falling below 69c is an indication of a major Risk Off. More notably, commodities are falling sharply, Dr Copper has broken the $4 mark and down to $3.90 for a 3.36% decline, and Oil has dropped as low as US102+ and appears to have broken through its upward trajectory line with XLE futures now down 3.8% (after the 5% rise yesterday).

A day late can be a difference to a large position.

The problem with technical analysis waiting for trend violation is that you start to sell only after the confirmation and that can be typically 20% lower. But if you act before the masses and take profits while the going is good and knowing what is upcoming [oil/commodity traders selling out upon recession/demand destruction narrative], you could have averted the correction.

Listening and staying tuned to the narrative has been the way I approached it, not waiting for the narrative to permeate into mainstream, that is like starting to queue for toilet paper when the word is out that there is a critical shortage.

1 day view then 1 year view

OIL_CRUDE Charts and Quotes — TradingView

I gave you lots of heads-up, in fact literally every day for the past weeks/months about the commodity correction.

Look at the 5 year Copper chart and you can see it is staring into an abyss. The worse to come is still ahead.

COPPER Charts and Quotes — TradingView

Get this, commodity stocks correction (or further correction) is unlikely to correlate proportionately to the movement in the S&P500. It could get uglier because it had to correct more after a resounding rally earlier on (peaking in April 22).

Even Gold is getting sold down to $1825 and $1815 must hold tonight , otherwise $1800 test coming up.

The early bird catches the worm. It is no longer early but still earlier.

Expand

Taking profits is a good idea, and so is selling upon confirmation of a downtrend, and buying upon confirmation of an uptrend. But guessing the top and bottom is just that, guessing. That's not a strategy. If you sell every time a stock goes 5% down you're not giving room for a stock to move. Your advice in November was to sell (or not buy) energy stocks. Even if you missed 20% of the top to confirm the downtrend, you could have easily doubled your money in 6 months. That was a massive opportunity cost to you.