[MEDIA] ...for those expecting a second half recovery, look at...

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    ...for those expecting a second half recovery, look at how Nasdaq performed in the years after the dot.com crash. Look at how many years of strong performance prior to the dot.com crash in 2000, likewise how many years of strong performance prior to this 2022 slow train wreck crash. The more overextended they have been, the more they have to give up , question is whether they give it quickly or over time. And until we see some semblance of another formative period of improving sentiment and renewed exuberance, markets can remain moribund for longer than we can hope and imagine. And the key word: until. Until then, it pays to stay out of harm's way and make capital preservation a top priority.

    ...the market is hopeful we get a Fed pivot soon and the Fed re-ignites the bubble all over again. I think this time is different (but I could be wrong) , bubbles makes the Fed's task increasingly impossible and the only reason the Fed continues to a reflate a bubble is because it cannot afford a big deflation, as that threatens the US financial system. But given the protracted and high inflation we have now, any moves by the Fed to reflate without justification (like a disorderly crash or systemic event) would be deemed irresponsible and works towards a further deterioration in its declining credibility. So the Fed will do what it has to do (to beat inflation) at the expense of the equity markets until we get inflation reasonably down or a systemic event of sort that warrants a premature pivot.

    ...and now we are starting to hear pundits on CNBC remarking about a second downleg in equities premised on a lower earnings footprint (profit recession) ...they're selling before the earnings result. They're selling to stay ahead. Lower earnings narrative is yet to be proven but the macro indicators all point to lower earnings growth, though analysts are holding back from revising them downwards. Why? Like I said, they allow themselves a window to re-position themselves before they make them for public consumption. Sorry but you must think the banks will look after their own profits first before their clients.

 
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