Yes, I think inflation could be measured differently in different countries. And official inflation rates is lower than true inflation rate because they include things that people do not buy on a regular basis. The true inflation rate that hits consumers and their living costs are things that get consumed on a regular basis. Not a TV set that gets cheaper by the year.
When it comes to US CPI and PCE, the market hopes for a large drop in the numbers so they can hope that the Fed will become more dovish, they're too fixated on rates. But while I do not expect CPI/PCE to go higher, implying peak inflation, I do not expect them to come down much, they could just hover around the same level or a tad lower than the previous quarter. You would expect businesses to continue passing higher costs into higher consumer prices , because their costs have gone higher and margins compressed while labour is tight. And they would do that until demand contracts and sales start to become affected in a bigger way. So it takes time for inflation rates to come down (if they ever do), and we haven't even given enough time for higher mortgage rates and lending costs to feed itself into the system. As long as CPI/PCE remains well above targeted rates, the Fed would not relent and markets continue to stay pressured.
