So says a gold newsletter Don’t write off commodities or fossil...

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    So says a gold newsletter
    Don’t write off commodities or fossil fuels. It could come back to haunt you.

    No one is or should. A more meaningful retracement after a sharp commodities rally earlier on is not writing off commodities or fossil fuels. Imagine them saying so one month after Aug 20 when Gold ended its bull rally and to ignore the pullback and continue to hold - which is exactly what many gold stock investors did. We know what happened to gold stocks since then. But that doesn't make gold stocks or any good commodity stocks for that matter unattractive after it has run its course to the downside.

    But you'd expect someone to say that , having held and failed to recognise a change in market narrative (to recession) , and now needing to justify to its readers to stay patient and stay the course.

    Fact is newsletters cannot be NIMBLE. If you are nimble, you could recommend a Buy one month and then when the narrative changes, you sell in time the following month to book even a small return before it goes pear shape as it did. But they said ignore all the noise, because investing has to give enough time to produce results.

    Investing IMO is not about staying the course, it is about capturing the optimal returns in any period of time (can be short can be long) as long as risk-reward stacks up in your favour. Sometimes it provides 40-50% perhaps even 80-100% return over the course of just 4-6 months, and if you do not take them preferring instead to extrapolate that the longer you hold, the bigger the bagger gets, well, be prepared for the other side of reality.  There are many people who only buy never sells. They say selling is gambling. Investing must be long term hold. Mainly boomer thinking I believe , old school (I am boomer too btw). Selling allows re-deployment of capital at appropriate times to make new gains which isn't possible if the capital is already committed (and subject to market selloff), and most times people commit even more money to take advantage of cheaper prices and get more exposed. And hoping for a market bottom soon. Except that lower could continue to go lower and poor stock choices could lead to more ruin (at the worst case).

    Today's market and today's world is very different from that 30-40 years ago, even then the Greed-Fear factor has been with the market in time memorial.
 
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