Its Over, page-13529

...as you can see, the markets are miles ahead. They are looking beyond this next CPI number, which is projected to remain high. But if it gets higher than that, they get spooked. More importantly, they will be looking for trends amongst key components of the CPI number to see any signs of effects from lower consumer sentiment/confidence and demand destruction.
...still think the market is being too premature to assume inflation would fall quickly from here and therefore the Fed pivot will come sooner. Higher than normal inflation (by that I mean at least above 4pc, never mind 2pc) would I reckon stay with us until Q2 next year (most likely well past mid-term elections in US in Nov). At the earliest, the Fed pivot could come after the Sept rate hike just before midterms , as I expect markets to experience new lows at that point and unemployment to perk higher then. That would be the case if the Fed plays politics. Even if it does, pivot is not to be interpreted as starting to drop rates, instead it is more likely to send out dovish signals that the Fed is about done lifting rates and would allow QT 2nd tranche to do its part, and opening options depending on where inflation and unemployment progresses thereafter.

Fed braces as another big US inflation number looms

Bloomberg

US inflation data in the coming week may stiffen the resolve of Federal Reserve policymakers to proceed with another big boost in interest rates later this month.

The closely watched consumer price index probably rose nearly 9 per cent in June from a year earlier, a fresh four-decade high, based on the median projection of economists in a Bloomberg survey. Compared with May, the CPI is seen rising 1.1 per cent, marking the third month in four with an increase of at least 1 per cent.

While persistently high and broad-based inflation is seen persuading Fed officials to raise their benchmark rate 75 basis points for a second consecutive meeting on July 27, recession concerns are mounting. There are signs, though, that price pressures at the producer level are stabilising as commodities costs -- including energy -- retreat.

Even so, the inflation data are likely to draw heightened scrutiny globally after a faster-than-consensus result for May caused ructions in financial markets.